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Blake Baker LESS THAN 33.5 Rushing Yards

Baker’s season has been a bit of a rollercoaster. He began the year losing the quarterback battle, then stepped in during Week 2 to split snaps with Trey Kukuk before Kukuk went down with an injury in Week 3. Since taking over as the starter, Baker has struggled to find his footing—he’s been sacked seven times in just two games, turned the ball over three times, and managed only 29 and -10 rushing yards in those starts. Now, with Kukuk expected to return, Baker’s playing time could take a hit. Even if he does get the start, I still like him to stay under this number given the recent struggles and potential for limited snaps.

Jeffery Pittman MORE THAN 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

Pittman has firmly cemented himself as the clear-cut RB1 for Southern Miss and now draws a dream matchup. Georgia Southern’s run defense has been downright brutal this season — they rank dead last in nearly every rushing metric imaginable. PFF grades them at an abysmal 42.8, with the next worst defense all the way up at 57.6, showing just how bad they’ve been. They’ve allowed at least two rushing touchdowns to running backs in every FBS game this season except one, and Pittman comes in red-hot with two rushing scores in each of his last two outings. Everything lines up perfectly here — I love this spot for Pittman to keep rolling.

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