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Luis Ortiz LESS THAN 17.5 Pitching Outs
Ortiz has stayed under this line in 7 of his last 10 starts, and while his strikeout rate on the season is solid, it’s been offset by some serious command issues—he’s walking 11.8% of the batters he faces. He’ll be tested again here by a Reds lineup that has been quietly effective against right-handed pitching, ranking in the top 10 with a .255 batting average. While Ortiz has the stuff to put together a decent outing, his lack of control could be his undoing. Given the matchup and recent trends, it’s hard to see him making it out of the sixth inning.
Chris Sale MORE THAN 7.5 Strikeouts
I always look for opportunities to back Sale, and this slate is no exception. The Braves are currently mired in a 7-game losing streak, and they’ll be leaning heavily on their ace to help them snap out of it. Sale has been in dominant form, going over this strikeout line in 6 of his last 7 starts while averaging an impressive 8.5 punchouts per game during that stretch. He draws a Brewers lineup that hasn’t seen much of him, but in limited exposure—just 37 career at-bats—they’ve struck out at a staggering 32.4% clip. This sets up as another strong spot for Sale to shine.

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