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Antonio Senzatela MORE THAN 6.5 Hits Allowed

Antonio Senzatela has endured a brutal start to the season and currently ranks among the worst starting pitchers in baseball by almost every advanced metric. He has surrendered 7 or more hits in 8 of his 9 outings, and opposing hitters are teeing off on him with a staggering .344 expected batting average — placing him in the 1st percentile league-wide. His 7.43 expected ERA sits in the 2nd percentile, and his 10.5% strikeout rate is among the lowest in the majors. The matchup doesn’t get any easier today, as he faces a red-hot Phillies lineup that has had plenty of success against him in the past. In 78 career at-bats against Senzatela, Philadelphia is hitting .372. All signs point to another rough outing for the Rockies’ right-hander.

Ivan Herrera MORE THAN 0.5 Total Bases

Ivan Herrera has kicked off the season on an absolute tear, recording hits in 13 of his first 16 games and riding an impressive 9-game hitting streak for the Cardinals. Statistically, he’s been among the league’s most productive hitters, boasting a stellar .442 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and a .324 expected batting average (xBA) on the year. While he’s slated to face a tough opponent in Tarik Skubal, Herrera looks dialed in at the plate and is seeing the ball extremely well. Even with the challenging matchup, this line looks very appealing given how locked in Herrera has been.

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