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Willy Adames LESS THAN 1.5 Total Bases
Willy Adames has consistently fallen short of this number, staying under in 77% of games this season and managing to go over it in just one of his last nine outings. Today, he faces Kyle Freeland — a pitcher he’s struggled mightily against throughout his career, going 0-for-13 in their head-to-head matchups. Adding to the appeal of the under, this game is being played in San Francisco rather than the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field, which only strengthens the case. All signs point to another quiet day at the plate for Adames, making this a spot I feel great about targeting the under.
Collin Rea MORE THAN 4.5 Strikeouts
Colin Rea has quietly been a steady strikeout producer to start the season, going over this line in all three of his starts while averaging over five punchouts per outing. He draws a favorable matchup today against a Pirates lineup that strikes out at a 22.3% clip against right-handed pitching — a vulnerability Rea is well-positioned to exploit. In his career, he’s faced this group of Pirates hitters 56 times and holds an impressive 29.4% strikeout rate against them. With his recent form, a soft matchup, and a plus-money value on the board, this feels like a great opportunity to back Rea to go over once again.
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