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Ashton Jeanty LESS THAN 3.5 Receptions

Jeanty has cleared this number only twice all season, and this matchup doesn’t do him any favors. Dallas has allowed 4 or fewer receptions to running backs in all but five games this year — and no individual RB has caught more than four passes against them. The Cowboys’ defense is far more vulnerable down the field than underneath, which sets up for Vegas to funnel targets toward their remaining wideouts and tight ends. Jeanty should still see his usual workload on the ground, but the passing-game volume just isn’t there. This is a tough spot for him to get over this line.

George Pickens MORE THAN 65.5 Receiving Yards

Pickens has cleared this number in all but two games this season and continues to operate as one of the league’s most consistent big-play threats, averaging just under 85 yards per game. With CeeDee Lamb commanding so much defensive attention, Pickens is routinely seeing favorable single-coverage looks, and he’s made the most of them — posting 78+ yards in four straight games. Now he gets a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in receiving yards allowed to opposing wideouts, giving up more than 168 yards per game. This sets up perfectly for another strong outing, and I absolutely love this spot for Pickens to stay hot.

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