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CJ Bailey LESS THAN 249.5 Passing Yards

This offense is built around the ground game and doesn’t boast an overly impressive receiving corps. Their top wideout, KC Concepcion, transferred to Texas A&M, leaving behind a group that struggled to produce — with last year’s leading receiver managing only 464 yards. While there is a reliable pass-catching option in tight end Justin Joly, this line still feels inflated given the circumstances. Looking back at last season, NC State faced East Carolina in their bowl game and came up short in a 26-21 loss, with Bailey throwing for just 230 yards. That history makes it hard to feel confident in him clearing a lofty passing total here.

Latrell Caples MORE THAN 3.5 Receptions

I like Caples’ yards and receptions in this spot, but if I’m building a two-man slip, I lean toward receptions. Last season, Caples finished as Boise State’s #2 wideout in targets, and now the Broncos enter the year without three of their top four receivers. On top of that, they also lost Ashton Jeanty, which could push the offense to lean more heavily on the passing game. It’s easy to forget that Caples was actually the Broncos’ top receiver back in 2022 before an injury wiped out his entire 2023 campaign. With his experience, talent, and a prime opportunity in front of him, I love the veteran to carve out a major role this year — starting with a strong showing in the season opener.

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