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Yusei Kikuchi MORE THAN 5.5 Hits Allowed

Kikuchi has been giving up plenty of contact lately, allowing at least 8 hits in 5 of his last 8 outings. While his expected batting average sits at a respectable .255, the Blue Jays have been letting him eat innings, which increases his exposure. He’s in for a tough challenge here against a Red Sox lineup that’s been raking against left-handed pitching, batting .272 on the season. To make matters more difficult, Boston has a strong track record against Kikuchi specifically, hitting .304 over 69 career at-bats. With the matchup and history both working against him, it’s hard not to expect Kikuchi to give up his fair share of hits in this one.

Carlos Santana LESS THAN 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Santana has fallen short of this number in 11 of his last 17 games, and he faces a tough task here against the returning Max Scherzer. While Scherzer may be coming off an injury, his track record against Santana is nothing short of dominant—holding him to just 4 hits in a staggering 52 career at-bats. That’s a .077 average against one of the game’s fiercest competitors. Given the poor history and a tough pitching matchup, this sets up as an ideal spot to back the under for Santana.

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