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Framber Valdez MORE THAN 95.5 Pitches Thrown
Valdez has been in a strong rhythm lately, going over this pitch count line in 4 of his last 6 starts. Even in the two outings where he didn’t hit the over, he was still highly efficient—tossing an 83-pitch complete game against the Rays and throwing just 89 pitches over 8 dominant innings versus the Royals. Over that six-start stretch, Framber has been outstanding, posting a 1.84 ERA, a sharp 2.45 FIP, and holding opponents to a minuscule .220 xwOBA. He now faces a struggling White Sox lineup, and with his outs prop set at 18.5, he’s clearly expected to work deep into the game. Both lines are viable, but I give the edge to the pitch count—it offers a bit more flexibility in what’s shaping up to be another strong outing.

Tarik Skubal MORE THAN 6.5 Strikeouts (Goblin)
At first glance, this line might seem a bit lofty for a goblin—but when that goblin happens to be the reigning 2024 Cy Young winner, it’s a different story. Skubal has been on an absolute tear this season, boasting an elite 33.4% strikeout rate and clearing this number in 7 of his last 8 starts. He draws a favorable matchup against a Baltimore lineup that struggles against left-handed pitching, striking out at a 25.1% clip. The sample size adds even more confidence—across 48 career at-bats against Skubal, the Orioles have struck out a staggering 39.5% of the time. All signs point to another dominant outing for the Tigers’ ace.

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