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Kyle Harrison LESS THAN 16.5 Pitching Outs

Harrison has only made two starts so far this season and has yet to clear this pitching outs line in either appearance. Looking back to last year, the trend continues — over his final 10 starts of the 2023 season, he went over this number just twice, and those games came against weaker lineups in the White Sox and Rockies. Now he faces a much tougher challenge in the Padres, a solid offensive unit that has managed a .235 average in 35 career at-bats against him. Considering this is just his third outing of the year and he’s going up against a capable lineup, it’s hard to see him getting deep into this game. I’m leaning toward the under on Harrison here.

Chris Sale has been in dominant form lately, going over this strikeout line in five of his last six starts while averaging more than 8 strikeouts per outing during that stretch. On the season, he boasts an impressive 30.1% strikeout rate and is racking up 11.44 strikeouts per nine innings, placing him among the league’s elite in swing-and-miss stuff. He now faces a Diamondbacks lineup that he’s historically handled well — in 108 career at-bats against Sale, Arizona hitters are batting just .222 and have struck out 30 times. With his recent momentum and a favorable matchup, this sets up as another strong opportunity for Sale to rack up Ks.

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