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Tomoyuki Sugano LESS THAN 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

Tomoyuki Sugano has quietly been effective this season, staying under this number in six of his eight starts. He’s done a solid job of limiting damage, holding opponents to just a 38.1% hard-hit rate — a testament to his ability to manage contact and stay out of trouble. While the Twins have been swinging the bats well lately, Sugano’s control and command give him a strong chance to keep them in check. I like his chances to hold Minnesota to two runs or fewer in this matchup.

Austin Riley LESS THAN 1.5 Total Bases

Austin Riley has struggled to find consistent production lately, staying under this number in seven of his last ten games. He’s in for a tough challenge today against Trevor Williams, a pitcher who’s had his number in previous matchups. In 18 career plate appearances against Williams, Riley has managed just two hits while striking out eight times. Given the recent form and the difficult individual history, this looks like a tough spot for Riley to break out.

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