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Griffin Canning MORE THAN 4.5 Hits Allowed

Canning has gotten off to a solid start this season, showing strong overall command on the mound. However, there are a few underlying metrics worth noting—his 3.4 FIP and .258 expected batting average suggest he’s been navigating some traffic. Today, he faces a tall task against a high-powered Cubs offense that ranks third in both expected batting average (.265) and wOBA (.342), making them one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. While Canning has the tools to put together a serviceable outing, it’s likely he’ll have to work around some hard contact and give up his share of hits along the way.

Salvador Perez MORE THAN 1.5 Total Bases

Perez has been swinging a hot bat lately, going over this line in 9 of his last 14 games while posting a strong .373 wOBA during that stretch. He’s racked up 9 doubles in that span, consistently finding the gaps and making solid contact. He also draws a favorable matchup today against Lucas Giolito, a pitcher he’s had great success against throughout his career—hitting .432 in 37 career at-bats, with 9 extra-base hits. Giolito has struggled to limit hard contact this season, allowing a 45.5% hard-hit rate and a concerning .555 expected slugging percentage. All signs point to a great spot for Perez to keep producing at the plate.

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