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Brad Keller MORE THAN 1.5 Strikeouts

Keller has primarily worked out of the bullpen for the Cubs this season, but he’s no stranger to starting, having made starts in the past. He was slotted into a starting role just yesterday, so expectations should be tempered in terms of workload—but seeing him pitch into the third inning certainly isn’t out of the question. Despite his limited innings, Keller has been sharp, posting a solid 25.7% strikeout rate and holding opponents to an impressive .186 expected batting average. He’ll face a disciplined Mets lineup, but given the low line, there’s great value in backing Keller in this spot.

AJ Smith-Shawyer LESS THAN 2.5 Earned Runs

Smith-Shawver has quietly been a steady presence on the mound this season, allowing no more than three earned runs in four of his five starts. He’s been especially sharp lately, giving up just four total runs over his last three outings, spanning 18.1 innings—a stretch that has yielded an ERA under 2.0. He now draws a dream matchup against a struggling Pirates offense that ranks dead last in the league in runs scored per game. All signs point to another strong showing, and I absolutely love this spot for Smith-Shawver to keep rolling.

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