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Aaron Nola MORE THAN 5.5 Strikeouts

Nola has been dialed in this season, going over this strikeout line in six of his seven starts while maintaining a strong 26% strikeout rate. He’s averaging 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings and 6.4 punchouts per outing, making him a reliable source of swing-and-miss stuff every time he takes the mound. While he does face a disciplined Guardians lineup that strikes out less than 20% of the time, this line still feels a bit too low given Nola’s consistency and strikeout upside. Even against a tough opponent, he’s more than capable of clearing this number.

Hunter Brown MORE THAN 17.5 Pitching Outs

Brown has been a workhorse to start the season, going at least six innings deep in every outing while averaging over 96 pitches per start—proof of both his durability and the trust he’s earned from his coaching staff. He’s backed that up with elite strikeout stuff, sporting a 31% strikeout rate and averaging over 10 punchouts per nine innings. He’ll face a Reds lineup that can flash some offensive upside, but overall they’ve underwhelmed, ranking 26th in expected wOBA at just .311. Given Brown’s form and the matchup, this number feels spot-on for another strong performance.

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