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David Peterson LESS THAN 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

Peterson has quietly put together a solid start to the season, allowing more than 2 earned runs in just one outing so far. He’s been on a relatively short leash, typically working only 5 to 6 innings per start, which naturally limits his exposure to opposing lineups. He also has a strong track record against the Diamondbacks, having faced them four times over the past three seasons without surrendering more than 2 earned runs in any of those appearances. Given his consistency and limited workload, I really like this number for Peterson today.

Matthew Liberatore MORE THAN 4.5 Strikeouts

Liberatore has quietly put together a solid strikeout profile this season, going over this number in 3 of his 5 starts while averaging just under 8 strikeouts per 9 innings. He draws a favorable matchup today against a Pirates lineup that has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, posting a 25.3% strikeout rate. Even more encouraging, Liberatore has faced this group of hitters 59 times in his career and has punched them out at an impressive 27.1% clip. With the matchup and historical edge both working in his favor, this sets up as a great opportunity for Liberatore to hit the over.

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