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Eric Fedde LESS THAN 3.5 Strikeouts
I’ve targeted Erick Fedde before this season, and there’s no reason to stop now. He’s gone under this strikeout line in four of his six starts and currently sits in the bottom 5th percentile in strikeout rate with a concerning 12.5%. Now he faces a Mets lineup that has seen him plenty — 110 career at-bats, to be exact — and they’ve only struck out 12 times in those matchups. With poor swing-and-miss stuff and a lineup that’s historically handled him well, I love the value on the under here, especially at plus money.
Pete Alonso MORE THAN 0.5 Hits
Pete Alonso has come out of the gate scorching hot this season, recording hits in 24 of 33 games while ranking in the 99th percentile in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and 98th percentile in expected batting average (xBA). He now draws a highly favorable matchup against Erick Fedde — a pitcher we’ve already identified as vulnerable. Alonso has thrived in this matchup historically, batting .375 with six walks against Fedde in his career. With both his elite underlying metrics and track record of success, this sets up as a fantastic spot for Alonso — and the Mets as a whole — to put up some serious production.
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