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Jacob DeGrom LESS THAN 6.5 Strikeouts
Jacob deGrom has fallen short of this strikeout line in four of his six starts this season, averaging right around one strikeout per inning. While his 25.6% strikeout rate remains strong on paper, his usage has been somewhat limited — he’s surpassed six innings pitched just once and has only eclipsed the 87-pitch mark a single time all year. That cap on volume makes it tougher to reach higher strikeout totals, especially against a Mariners lineup that has been relatively disciplined, striking out just 20.4% of the time against right-handed pitching. Given the matchup and pitch count concerns, this number feels a bit too ambitious for deGrom in this spot.
Garrett Crochet MORE THAN 4.5 Strikeouts (Goblin)
Garrett Crochet has been absolutely dialed in lately, going over this strikeout line in six straight starts while averaging an impressive 7.6 punchouts per outing during that stretch. He draws a juicy matchup today against a Twins lineup that’s been striking out at a 26% clip against right-handed pitching — one of the highest marks in the league. Crochet has also dominated this roster in limited career action, racking up a 40% strikeout rate over 30 at-bats. With his recent form, underlying metrics, and the matchup all lining up, this number feels far too low for what Crochet brings to the mound right now.
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