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Jimmy Butler LESS THAN 18.5 Points

Butler has stayed under this line in 8 of his last 12 games, averaging just 16.67 points per contest during that stretch—a clear reflection of his reduced scoring role lately. While he does draw a favorable matchup against a Nuggets team that struggles to contain opposing small forwards—allowing over 22 points per game to the position—his recent usage and offensive involvement suggest this line may be a bit too high. Despite the soft defensive matchup, the numbers just don’t align with his current level of production.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander LESS THAN 43.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

This is all about the level of competition and who needs this game more. The Rockets have a top 5 defense in the league and allow under 40 points, rebounds and assists to opposing points guards. In addition to that, the Rockets are 2nd in the west by 3 games, the Thunder are above them in 1st by 14.5 games with 6 games left. The Thunder can rest some guys while the Rockets need to keep winning to secure their 3 seed. Gilgeous-Alexander will get plenty of playing time but I think he gets more rest than he would if they needed this game.